Two state solution continues to recede for Palestine

September 21 2008

I$raelis tired of peace talks so they dredged up some old charges against Prime Minister Olmert. The proof that the corruption charges aimed at the peace talks since Annapolis is what has happened since.

Olmert's Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni ran to replace Olmert. In this way, the peace talks were supposed to continue, because Livni's coalition is not due for another election till late 2010.

On September 17, the Transportation Minister Mofaz ran against Livni to head their party, Kadima, and lost by 431 votes out of 40,000 cast.(1) Mofaz has the same ideology as the Likud party from which Olmert's Kadima party split. Now Mofaz supporters say Livni stole the election.(2)

It was in the partisan interests of Likud and Labor for Mofaz to do well. Likud leader Netanyahu has compared Kadima to a sinking ship, the bank Lehman.(3) By putting in Mofaz, the Labor Party stood to gain by eliminating the middle ground between Labor and Likud.(4) Just creating hard feelings from a primary hurts Kadima.

For this reason, one intelligence-related website says Labor and Likud might actually coordinate against Kadima. If Labor leaves the current coalition in government power, Kadima falls, but the problem is what replaces the old government. Netanyahu and Labor leader Barak would have to horse-trade political power and win over right-wing parties to form a majority in the Knesset.(5)

According to Netanyahu, the Annapolis negotiations are a waste of time, "virtual."(6) Many in I$rael expect the Palestinians to form a government supporting I$raeli attacks on Palestinians before I$raelis negotiate. It's a catch-22 where Palestinians are supposed to have the trappings of independence before they have the independence that motivates state-formation.

The current "Palestinian Authority" seems too much on paper for many pragmatic I$raelis. The Netanyahu line is equivalent to Euro-Amerikan support for Booker T. Washington as a Black leader in the united $tates. The focus was solely on economics since it seemed that Blacks were not ready for political participation by white standards.

We would remind I$raelis that W.E.B. DuBois inevitably replaced Booker T. Washington, but DuBois alternated in his career between supporting integrationism and Black nationalism. The Booker T. Washington road is the road to a single state and segregation.

Barak has leverage on Livni by threatening to leave the government coalition of parties. He also has leverage on Netanyahu. If Netanyahu does not accept a Livni offer to be Finance Minister, Barak can stay in the government and Livni can take the Meretz Party while tossing parties opposed to negotiations on Jerusalem. At the moment, "Haaretz" is reporting Barak wants a new general election instead of Livni leadership.(7)

Even if Livni prevails to form a government, she will not present it till October 27.(8) Thus in many ways it looks like the Annapolis negotiations are dead. By the time the I$raelis and Amerikans get set up again, all the players could be different.

Of course the I$raelis and Amerikans had much time to do something since the meeting in Annapolis, but Bush failed to make a major move in public to move the I$raelis, and of course the I$raeli settlers just continued to settle on Palestinian land the whole time. The I$raelis are difficult to move, as a petty- bourgeois people just like Amerikkkans; although, we suspect that they are slightly more far-sighted than Amerikkkans.

"Haaretz" reports that Palestinian president Abbas met with the Spanish Foreign Minister to see about accepting Olmert's peace offer just before the election of Livni.(9) Abbas passed on it and took a chance that Mofaz would win, despite Abbas's stated belief, stated after the election, that Livni was the one with experience in the negotiations.

Likewise, President Abbas made an offer to Olmert. He says Olmert never replied to the Arab initiative for peace that would have given I$rael diplomatic recognition and business opportunities with the whole region.(10)

We would like imperialist country communists to note something about Abbas's last minute offers, so that imperialist country communists can look in the mirror. Despite all the Western propaganda against Iran, including McCain's song to bomb Iran, and despite the fact of Abbas's reputation as a millionaire lackey of the West administering World Bank and similar projects for the Palestinians, Abbas had no problem pointing out that Iran was a signatory on the Arab peace offer.(10)

For that matter, five former Secretaries of State for the united $tates are increasingly public about engaging Iran and moving on with diplomacy on less ideological grounds.(11) Three of the five are Republicans, so there is a consensus joined by Gates at the Pentagon that Amerikkka blew it with diplomacy under Bush, by not giving diplomacy sufficient political support.

Iran is willing to recognize I$rael to help the Palestinians. No less than the president of Iran has now said that Iranians are "friends" of the I$raeli people, thus adopting diplomatic language that Progressive Labor Party wanted Mao to adopt toward Amerikkkans. True, the spiritual leader, the top ayatollah said he disagreed with the president on the "friends" part,(12) but he also supported the Iranian president politically on pushing for a one-state solution in which Palestinians got the vote.

Olmert passed on Abbas's offer to cut right of return refugee numbers down if Olmert took the Arab deal, and now we are in the current juncture, where the major actors are going to run out the clock.

It is quite significant that Abbas obtained space in the Wall Street Journal to say there is still time for a deal. He proposed that Jerusalem not be physically divided, just divided by sovereignty.(13) "Haaretz" interpreted the article mainly as saying no Olmert-style solution will be accepted.

In the meantime, Hamas has said it did not think the election of Livni significant because the I$raeli leaders generally do not want a deal.(14) The imperialists are having a hard time advancing conditions in Gaza, because they do not want to aid Hamas at the expense of Fatah, Abbas's party. At the same time, the U.$. imperialists try to prevent Abbas from dealing with Hamas to rectify the situation. With Abbas holding out for a comprehensive deal, the next major assistance to Abbas would be creating a deal on the so-called core issues.

Although Hamas has a truce with I$rael, I$rael still stifles inflow of goods into Gaza. Commercial traffic is less than one-quarter what it was before Hamas won elections.(15) It's like MIM always said: Uncle $am is a sore loser in elections: dumbocracy is a joke. For Amerikkkans, dumbocracy means a country has sovereignty unless election victors disagree with the united $tates.

Others have also concluded that the two-state solution is done for, because I$raelis will never agree to move decisively for it.(16) The right thing to do is for I$rael to move to emergency government and make an offer Abbas can accept, but this seems unlikely for a variety of reasons. Some relatively large parties are pushing to hand over the West Bank to Jordan. With fantasies like that so pervasive, I$raeli politicians cannot make miracles happen via explanation to the I$raeli petty-bourgeoisie. Dividing sovereignty over Jerusalem and giving up I$raeli lands separating Jerusalem from the West Bank appear to be the problem there is no I$raeli super-majority for.

If the past is any indication, the next negotiations should be in 2016 to end in 2017--a prophetic year. Like it or not, even as a well-connected millionaire, Abbas represents a people from an exploited class background. When bourgeois Abbas succeeds, exploited people benefit. When Amerikans and I$raelis continue to cage Palestinians with neither citizenship in I$rael nor their own state, they do so to benefit bourgeois Amerikans and I$raelis. In 2017, perhaps 2008 will have turned out to be our Russian 1905 for what it will take to get the Palestinian question solved. Merrill Lynch, Lehman, Fannie Mae etc. can come and go, but the Palestinian plight continues. It may just take an international conjuncture with global capitalist collapse before Palestinians see freedom. The Palestinians are a small people on the global scale, but their cause unites the true international proletariat and alienates the bourgeoisie globally.

Notes:
1. http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5hd4-GqCi3irSD8NenbBVyyiAzRUw
2. http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1221745576039&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
3. http://www.globes.co.il/serveen/globes/docview.asp?did=1000382925&fid=942
4. http://www.debka.com/headline.php?hid=5585
5. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knesset; see also, http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1022893.html
6. "Netanyahu: Israel wasting valuable time with 'virtual' talks," 3Sept2008,
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1220433761948&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
7 http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1022882.html ; see also,
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3599504,00.html
8. http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1221745576033&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
9. "Spanish FM: Olmert, Abbas have 'very good basis for agreement,'"
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1021403.html; see also, http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1022867.html
10. http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1020471.html
11. http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09/16/secretaries.state.forum/
12. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/20/world/middleeast/20iran.html?ref=middleeast;
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1022804.html
13. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122178624406455063.html
14. http://www.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=178267
15. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7570605.stm
16. http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/sep/17/israelandthepalestinians.middleeast