EXPLAINING THE TRANSITION FROM FEUDALISM TO CAPITALISM: THE JAPANESE CASE AND ITS THEORETICAL SIGNIFICANCE Stephen K. Sanderson Indiana University of Pennsylvania Paper submitted for consideration for publication in Review, November, 1992 This paper is a reworking of portions of Chapters 4 and 5 of Social Transformations: A General Theory of Historical DevelopmentBasil Blackwell, forthcoming EXPLAINING THE TRANSITION FROM FEUDALISM TO CAPITALISM: THE JAPANESE CASE AND ITS THEORETICAL SIGNIFICANCE Numerous scholars have commented on the striking historical parallels that seem to have existed between Europe and Japan from late medieval times through to the development of industrial capitalism in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. Medieval Japan has been seen as having a form of feudalism that most closely resembled European feudalism, and Japan also seemingly underwent a transition from feudalism to capitalism that was remarkably similar to the European transition to modern capitalism (Duus, 1969; Reischauer, 1956; Jacobs, 1958; J.W. Hall, 1970; T.C. Smith, 1959; P. Anderson, 1974b; Halliday, 1975). However, despite the parallels that are often drawn between the historical trajectories of Europe and Japan, virtually no scholar has ever used the Japanese case to develop a general theory of the origins of modern capitalism. All of the theories that have been developed to explain the rise of capitalism have focused exclusively, or near exclusively, on the European situation. In fact, many scholars who have discussed the capitalist transition have seen it as a unique occurrence, possibly even as an extraordinary historical accident or "miracle" (Mann, 1986; E.L. Jones, 1987). But what kind of miracle is it that occurs twice, in two widely separated regions of the world, and largely on an independent basis in each region? In this paper I argue that all major theories of the capitalist transition are deficient in one way or another, and substantially because they concentrate on Europe and ignore that other great instance of the emergence of capitalism, the Japanese case. I then present a new interpretation of the rise of modern capitalism. This theory will identify the basic similarities between Europe and Japan that made these world regions unusually well suited to the takeoff into modern capitalism at a particularly crucial juncture in world history. THE ORIGINS OF JAPANESE CAPITALISM Although the Japanese transition from feudalism to capitalism has been much less studied and is less well understood than the European transition, enough is now known about the development of capitalism in Japan so that a fairly detailed story can be told. Japanese culture and civilization owe much to China, but politically Japan has developed in a very different way. Japan was the one society outside Europe to develop a genuine feudal system (Anderson, 1974b). Many Japanese scholars see Japanese feudalism beginning with the Kamakara Shogunate in 1185, although it is commonly argued that the full development of feudal institutions occurred only with the establishment of the Ashikaga Shogunate in 1338 (J.W. Hall, 1970; Reischauer, 1956).1 Edwin Reischauer (1956) calls the feudalism of the Kamakara period "protofeudalism" and argues that the period from 1338 to 1600 was the age of classical feudalism in Japan. With the establishment of the Tokugawa Shogunate in 1603 Japan entered into its late feudal period, which was to last until the middle of the nineteenth century. During its feudal period the Japanese nobility was divided into an upper nobility, the daimyo or great lords, and a lower nobility known as the samurai, who were vassals of the daimyo. Japanese merchants, or chonin, were an important part of the economic situation in feudal Japan, but, as in all agrarian states, they were generally looked down upon, if not despised, by the nobility. As we shall see, however, they played a critical role in the economic evolution of medieval Japan. European contact was established with Japan by the middle of the sixteenth century. Some trade was carried on between the two regions, and Christian missionaries established themselves in Japan. However, not long after the establishment of the Tokugawa Shogunate Japan began to embark on its famous policy of isolation from the West. This seclusion policy took effect in several stages (Pearson, 1991). In 1606 Christianity was forbidden, in 1623 the English left, and in 1624 this was quickly followed by the expulsion of the Spaniards. In 1630 Japanese were no longer allowed to engage in foreign trade or travel. The Dutch were allowed to stay, but in 1639 they were restricted to a small area and were very closely supervised. It is usually assumed that after 1639 the Japanese were virtually totally isolated from the rest of the world, but Ronald Toby (1984) has shown that this is a false assumption. Japan continued to carry on important trade relations with China and other nearby parts of Asia, and was thus still involved in foreign trade. Daniel Spencer (1958:212) suggests that the remaining trade was "still quite comparable to a good sized colonial trade of the period." Indeed, the Sino-Japanese trade may actually have increased by the end of the seventeenth century (Atwell, 1986). The Tokugawa regime seemed to be motivated by several factors in establishing its seclusion policy. One of these was fear of Christianity and its influence. However, economic and political factors probably played a bigger role. As Charles David Sheldon (1958) has suggested, the Tokugawa regime suspected the Europeans of having designs on Japanese territory, and the regime also feared the potential for growing power on the part of those daimyo involved in significant trade relations with Europeans. Whatever the exact reasons, the isolationist policy had become a firm reality by 1639, and this policy would come to have a major influence on the course of Japanese economic development. Until about the 1960s it was generally assumed by scholars of Japan that the Tokugawa period was one of economic stagnation that was only overcome with the arrival of the Europeans and the reopening of Japan in the mid-nineteenth century. Recent scholarship, however, shows that this older view was wrong, and badly so. Many scholars now stress the economic vitality of the Tokugawa period and see it as contributing significantly to Japanese economic developments in the second half of the nineteenth century. One of the first to adopt this newer view was Daniel Spencer (1958). Spencer described a series of interrelated processes involving large-scale urbanization, commercialization of agriculture, increasing flight of peasants into the towns and cities, the worsening economic condition of the nobility, growth in the wealth and economic importance of the merchant class, increased monetization of the economy, and the beginnings of the factory system. He concluded that Japan experienced a level of economic growth during this period that paved the way for the even greater economic development of the Meiji era (Spencer, 1958:213): By the end of the seventeenth century, Japan was a money economy whose high development led Kaempfer, that astute observer from the then leading country of Europe, to marvel at its cities, its highways, commerce and general conditions. Here is the broad foundation for later growth. The essence of this preparation was the institutional change which mobilized the social surplus in the hands of a monopolistic class of entrenched big merchants. In a more recent study Kozo Yamamura (1980) has shown that the period from 1550 to 1650 witnessed an agricultural and commercial revolution. The large rise in agricultural productivity during this century was made possible by several proximate conditions: increasing effectiveness of water use, development and dissemination of higher-yielding varieties of rice, availability of inexpensive hoes, and increased use of fertilizers. Yamamura stresses in particular the importance of better methods of water management involving irrigation dikes, banks, and dams. Lurking behind these proximate causes of increased agricultural productivity, Yamamura claims, was a change in property rights involving giving peasants more individual control over their land. What Yamamura is essentially describing is the beginning of a shift toward more capitalistic land tenure. With these changing property rights there arose a class of independent farmers closely akin to the yeoman farmers of early modern Europe. Yamamura holds that greater control over their own land gave peasants increased incentives to make the land productive. The commercial revolution of the mid-sixteenth century involved deliberate measures undertaken by the state to promote commerce. These measures included such things as decrees to protect merchants, decrees designed to eliminate various restrictions on the operation of markets, active development of transportation networks and facilities (which eventually involved the creation of a nationwide network of sea and river transportation), and standardization of measurements. Yamamura is quick to point to the parallels between Japanese and English economic development in this period. Indeed, for Yamamura these parallels are close enough to allow him to assert that "what becomes increasingly evident is the fact that, as our knowledge of the earlier period of Japanese economic history increases, the crucial question which we should have asked is not why Japan was the first to industrialize in Asia, but why did the Japanese industrialization begin so late in the nineteenth century?" (1980:104). So, from Yamamura's research we learn not only that there are important parallels between Japan and Europe, but that these parallels can be found even before the beginning of the Tokugawa period. Sheldon (1958) has traced the rising economic importance of the merchant class throughout the Tokugawa period, but, like Yamamura, notes that important economic developments were taking place in the century before Tokugawa. Sheldon sees the Genroku period (1688-1703) as the critical one in the merchants' economic evolution. By this time there was a vigorous money economy and the merchant class had finally become strong enough to force the nobility to regard it as a serious economic competitor (Sheldon, 1958:99): The general prosperity and increased standard of living experienced in the Genroku period meant a great increase in the manufacturing and sale of commercial goods. Not only did the merchants benefit from this, but the Genroku period saw the draining of feudal treasuries into merchant coffers. The daimyo and ordinary samurai alike became more deeply indebted to the merchant money lenders. This gave the merchants a high degree of economic security and permitted the development of a type of merchant nobility. John Whitney Hall (1970) sees the growth of mercantile activities during the Tokugawa epoch in similar terms, pointing out that it was during this time that a bourgeoisie first rose to national prominence. Like Sheldon, he is concerned to trace the general outlines of the evolution of the merchant class (1970:208-09): The merchant community of Tokugawa times went through certain stages of development in its rise to economic prominence. In the early years, the important merchants were those specially patronized by the Shogun and daimyo, the so-called "house merchants." By the eighteenth century a number of great commercial houses had grown up in Osaka and Edo [modern Tokyo] whose diversified activities focused upon moneylending and exchange. By the nineteenth century, houses based on manufacturing and cottage industry had begun to make their appearance. The growth of commercial capital is revealed in the estimate that by 1761 there were in Japan over two hundred commercial houses each valued at over 200,000 gold ryo. . . . Thus in total capital worth the great merchants had become the equivalent of many daimyo. By the middle Tokugawa period most of the outstanding chonin houses which were to retain their status into modern times had been established. It is interesting to note that an especially important commodity in Japan in the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries was silver ore (Flynn, 1991; Barrett, 1990). Japan exported this silver to Korea and China. Only Spanish America was a bigger producer of silver during this time (Flynn, 1991; Barrett, 1990). Flynn (1991) notes that this made Spain and Japan major competitors in the world market. Once silver waned, Japan became a major exporter of copper, with the biggest buyer being China. An inextricable part of Japanese economic development during the Tokugawa era was extensive urbanization. This was particularly the case during the seventeenth century. Hall (1970) calls the urbanization of this time "astounding," and suggests that it is quite possibly without historical precedent (cf. Goldsmith, 1987). Gilbert Rozman (1974:98) puts the matter this way: While rural Japan shared in the dynamism with respect to population growth, to commercial specialization, and to social differentiation in the seventeenth century, it was overshadowed by the unparalleled transformation within the urban sector. With Edo, Osaka, and Kyoto leading the way, new patterns of consumption and new modes of social organization developed in Japanese cities. If any period of premodern history anywhere can properly be labeled urban-centered, it is this period from about 1600 to the 1720's in Japan. The growth of Edo was truly spectacular. At the end of the sixteenth century it was not much more than a small village, but by the early eighteenth century it had reached half a million persons and by the end of that century it was well over a million in population (Spencer, 1958). Edo had become the world's largest city. Spencer (1958) estimates that in the eighteenth century between 10 and 13.3 percent of the Japanese population lived in large towns or cities, a remarkable figure, he suggests, when we recognize that in the United States in 1790 the urban population constituted only 3 percent of the total, and only 16 percent of the total as late as 1860. Japan was even more urbanized than Europe, which in 1800 had only 22 cities above 100,000 in population, and these cities together constituted only 3 percent of the total population (Spencer, 1958). The full extent to which capitalism was emerging in Tokugawa Japan can also be seen by examining one of the most important aspects of capitalist development: proletarianization of the labor force. Gary Leupp (1992) argues that during the Tokugawa period Japan was becoming an increasingly impersonal, money-dominated society with a larger and larger part of its labor force being compensated in the form of wages. In fact, by the end of the Tokugawa period Leupp suggests that wage labor had become the major form of compensation, at least with respect to urban workers. Thomas Smith (1959) has shown that wage labor became increasingly important during the Tokugawa period even in agricultural work, and that by the end of the period feudal peasants were no longer the predominant form of farm worker. Agricultural workers gradually became hokonin, workers who were part way between traditional feudal peasants and fully free workers. Smith distinguishes between three grades of hokonin. The least free of the hokonin were workers who were given to a family for an indeterminate period of time in return for a loan. The worker received no compensation other than his keep and had to work until the loan was repaid. A second type of hokonin was like the first except for the fact that he received at least some compensation. However, he was not paid an hourly or daily wage; instead, a sum was agreed on in advance and this sum was then deducted from the debt remaining at the end of the loan period. Obviously neither of these types of labor is much like wage labor, but nonetheless the second type does show an economic value of its own that could be rationally calculated. Moreover, both types of hokonin possessed at least some degree of freedom denied the traditional peasant. Smith tells us that the second type of laborer became increasingly common as the Tokugawa period advanced. The third type of hokonin marked a further advance toward free labor. This type of worker was still "bound by debt for the duration of the loan, but his labor during that time constituted repayment of it in full: at the end of the stipulated period neither any part of the principal of the debt nor unpaid interest remained to hold him" (T.C. Smith, 1959:114). Smith goes on to note that throughout the Tokugawa era there was a gradual shortening of the length of time for which workers were bound. It may once have been of indefinite duration, then shortened to 10 or 15 years, then to no more than 3 years, and then finally to only one year or possibly even a single season. Smith argues, correctly in my opinion, that this shortening of the employment period shows that work was increasingly regarded as having its own economic value (i.e, a value independent of particular social relations), and that the worker was increasingly being regarded as a hired hand to be employed just for the time that his labor was needed. Eventually, true wage labor in agriculture evolved after having first been applied to industry and trade. Smith suggests that by the end of the Tokugawa era it was quite common, although certainly by no means the universal form of labor. It is only in recent decades that scholars have recognized the deep historical roots of Japan's development of industrial capitalism in the twentieth century. At one time virtually no one thought of looking backward in time beyond the Meiji Restoration (1868) in order to trace Japan's modern transformation. Of course it is now recognized that the entire Tokugawa era contained major economic changes, and that many of these changes began even in the century before Tokugawa (Yamamura, 1980). But even the sixteenth century may be starting too late, for there is evidence that important economic developments were occurring in Japan as early as the thirteenth century. Several scholars have shown that Japan was deeply enmeshed in a network of foreign trade with other parts of Asia at this early period (Sansom, 1961; Reischauer, 1956; J.W. Hall, 1970). Edwin Reischauer (1956) notes that trade with China and Korea became an important part of the Japanese economy in the thirteenth century. The lead in financing the larger commercial ventures was taken by Buddhist monasteries, but these ventures had been taken over by the shogun and feudal lords by the end of the fourteenth century. During the fifteenth and sixteenth centuries foreign trade grew rapidly in intensity and trade ventures were extended to other parts of the Far East, even as far as the Straits of Malacca. Some feudal lords, especially those in coastal areas, depended on foreign trade for much of their income. Japanese traders became a virtual part of the warrior nobility and came to be renowned throughout the Far East for both their martial abilities and their commercial endeavors. John Whitney Hall has also not overlooked the importance of the economic developments of the three centuries before Tokugawa. He notes that (1970:113; emphasis added): One of the fascinating and seemingly paradoxical aspects of the history of the fourteenth and fifteenth centuries in Japan is that, despite the instability of the political order, the country at large gave evidence of remarkable cultural and economic growth. . . . The same centuries saw Japan emerge as a major maritime power in East Asia activated by a vigorous internal economic expansion. And he continues (1970:121, 123, 126): We should not suppose that Japan remained economically stagnant during the Kamakura period, and it is in the early years of the Ashikaga period that our attention is again attracted by evidence of dramatic economic growth in Japan. . . . The increase in trade, of which the spread of money was a symptom, brought with it a number of major consequences. Wealth, for instance, was no longer tied solely to the land but could be accumulated in other ways and stored in the form of precious metals or goods. A merchant class, congregating in a few important administrative and trade centers, was able to establish itself as a class of wealth outside of the confines of aristocratic society. . . . In Japan as in Europe the growth of the commercial and service classes was marked by the rise of new towns and cities which contrasted sharply in their prime functions with the older administrative centers. . . . . . . The trade also reveals a great deal about the state of the Japanese economy. Exports to China were now mass commodities and artifacts such as refined copper, sulfur, folding fans, screens, painted scrolls, and above all swords. Single missions carried tens of thousands of Japanese steel swords to China. In return the Japanese ships returned with strings of cash (50,000 strings in 1454), raw silk, porcelains, paintings, medicines, and books. All of this gave evidence that Japan was no longer an underdeveloped member of the Chinese world order. In fact the limited trade permitted by a reluctant China was eventually to prove too restrictive for the Japanese. After 1551 the tally trade broke down, and Japanese traders in unrestrained numbers began to ply the China seas. It is important to situate this early Japanese economic thrust in its world-systemic context. It seems that Japan was involving itself in a vigorous Far Eastern trade at basically the same time that late Sung and early Ming China was withdrawing from world trade and declining economically. These events are undoubtedly connected. A large economic vacuum was created, and Japan was quick to fill it (Collins, 1990). Japan picked up the Asian economic impetus where China left off. No one should think I am suggesting that Japan was becoming a capitalist society in the thirteenth and fourteenth centuries. Far from it. But it was involving itself in economic networks and undergoing economic changes that would be of momentous importance in the centuries to come. By the end of the Tokugawa Shogunate in 1868 Japan had become an essentially capitalist society in economic terms despite retaining basically feudal social and political arrangements.2 But this is not surprising: superstructures commonly lag behind and change more slowly than infrastructures. I say that Japan had become essentially capitalist for several reasons. The merchant class had grown tremendously in economic importance. Japan had undergone tremendous commercialization, both in agriculture and in industry, and had become one of the most urbanized societies in the world. Spencer (1958) claims that by the end of the eighteenth century fully fifteen sixteenths of Japan's wealth was in the hands of the merchants, a remarkable indication of the extent of the economic changes. It was the merchant class that was in economic if not political control of late Tokugawa Japan. The rising economic significance of the merchants meant the simultaneous decline of the nobility, both the great daiymo and the lesser samurai. The samurai eventually became little more than paid administrative officials of the daimyo, thus losing their former close association with the land. Both the samurai and the daimyo had to rely increasingly on loans from the merchants, and their indebtedness grew throughout the Tokugawa period. The worsening plight of the nobility caused many of them to go over to the merchant class, with many former nobles becoming bankers, manufacturers, and other types of entrepreneur. This situation in which many nobles turned bourgeois to adapt to the changing economic conditions is highly reminiscent of the situation in Europe, and yet one more important parallel between the European and Japanese transitions to capitalism. THEORIES OF THE TRANSITION TO CAPITALISM We are now faced with the formidable task of explaining the capitalist revolution that took place in Japan (and, by implication, in western Europe as well) in the fifteenth, sixteenth, and seventeeth centuries. It is important to say at the outset that this is a problem to which a great deal of attention has been given, but one that has seemingly been intractable to our best theoretical efforts. Numerous theories have been set forth, but there is little consensus concerning them. A further problem is that most of these theories have been constructed with only the European case in mind. I should like to run through all of the major theories in some detail, pointing out their strengths and weaknesses, and in the end I will advance my own interpretation. This interpretation is based on the assumption that any good theory of the capitalist revolution must apply to both the European and the Japanese cases. I reject the notion, set forth by historical particularists, that different historical events must be explained by different concepts and theories. Any social science worthy of the name must push nomothetic explanation as far as it can go. It is my view that, although there were important differences, the European and Japanese trajectories toward modern capitalism were sufficiently similar to constitute essentially the same kind of event occurring more or less independently in two different world regions at approximately the same period of world history. This cannot be an accident of history, and thus the European advance cannot be a "miracle," as some scholars have argued (E.L. Jones, 1987, 1988). I have no patience at all with the incredible dismissal by Eric Jones (1987) of the relevance of the Japanese case to an understanding of the rise of the modern capitalist world, especially inasmuch as he himself has recognized the existence of important parallels between Europe and Japan. Jones may rest content with his version of Eurocentrism, but for me it is a serious barrier to understanding the rise of modernity. Marxian Theories A variety of contrasting Marxian theories have been put forth to explain the European transition from feudalism to capitalism. Let us start with the famous debate between the Marxists Maurice Dobb and Paul Sweezy that was conducted shortly after the end of the Second World War. In his classic Studies in the development of capitalism (1963; first edition 1947), Dobb set forth a theory of the transition that emphasized the internal contradictions of feudalism as a mode of production. What led the feudal system into crisis and ultimately tore it apart, Dobb argued, was the growing class struggle between landlords and peasants. By late feudal times landlords had significantly increased their exploitation of the peasantry, and this intensified exploitation provoked a peasant flight from the land that created a "crisis of feudalism" and set in motion a transition to a capitalist mode of production. Sweezy (1976[1950]) questioned the basic logic of this theory by asserting that it improperly concentrated only on endogenous forces. He argued that there were no forces within feudalism strong enough to transform it and went on to propose as an alternative a basically exogenist theory. It was the revival, from about the eleventh century, of long-distance trade between Europe and other world regions that he saw as the impetus for the feudal crisis and the move toward capitalism. The revival of trade caused feudalism to be increasingly involved in a market economy. As towns grew in size and importance, serfs were increasingly attracted to them and they fled the land in large numbers. Moreover, feudal lords themselves were increasingly attracted by the possibilities inherent in the market economy for the generation of large fortunes. For Sweezy, a market economy was inherently superior in efficiency to a feudal one, and it is his view that this greater efficiency was clearly recognized by landlords. In a sense, then, Sweezy was saying that it was the inefficiency of feudalism that led it to be destroyed in the end by a capitalist form of economic organization. One serious difficulty with Dobb's theory is that he provides no convincing explanation of landlords' increased exploitation of the peasantry over time. His basic argument is that nobles were caught up in a game of spiralling status emulation that required greater and greater levels of surplus extraction from the peasantry, but I do not find this argument persuasive. The game of status emulation was played by landlord classes throughout the agrarian world without necessarily resulting in increased levels of exploitation and peasant flight. Peasant flight from the land was an important aspect of the breakdown of feudalism and the shift toward capitalism, but it will need to be explained in another way. Sweezy's purely exogenist theory suffers from a serious underappreciation of the dynamics of feudalism. Sweezy argued that feudalism was an inherently stagnant mode of production. On its own it lacked any mechanism that could transform it, and thus it could only be transformed from the outside. But as Wallerstein (1974) has argued, feudalism should not be thought of as necessarily antithetical to a system of trade. We have learned in recent years that feudalism was a lot more dynamic than was once thought. Considerable growth and change occurred within European feudalism, and by no means can all of this be attributed to external influences. Nonetheless, as we will see later, Sweezy's theory is particularly useful in pointing us in the direction, if only implicitly, of the importance of rising world commercialization for the transformation of feudalism. Wallerstein has offered an interpretation of the transition to capitalism that, unsurprisingly, fits neatly into his general world-system perspective. Wallerstein gives special emphasis to the "crisis of feudalism" that many scholars of late medieval Europe have referred to. For Wallerstein, this crisis was primarily one of revenue collection on the part of the feudal nobility. The severely declining ability of feudalism to create wealth necessitated the shift to a new mode of production, and this was the creation of a capitalist world-economy based on the world market. A critical aspect of the creation of this world-economy was geographical expansion into areas outside Europe. What caused the feudal crisis in the first place? Wallerstein says it was the result of the simultaneous occurrence of three basic events. First, there was the downside of an economic cycle. The feudal system had been expanding between 1150 and 1300 but had reached a point beyond which it could no longer go. A contraction then set in. Second, there was a long-term secular trend. After nearly a millennium of surplus expropriation within the feudal mode of production a point of diminishing returns had been reached. Finally, there were unfavorable climatological conditions that lowered the productivity of the soil and increased epidemics. Like Sweezy's theory, Wallerstein's is not a Marxist one in any orthodox sense. It contains some obvious Marxian elements but also imports notions foreign to the Marxian tradition. It has been severely criticized by more orthodox Marxists for concentrating on "exchange relations" rather than relations of production (Brenner, 1976, 1977; cf. Holton, 1981, 1985; Mooers, 1991). In two famous articles, Robert Brenner (1976, 1977) has referred to Wallerstein as a "neo-Smithian Marxist" for his alleged neglect of production (class) relations in favor of exchange relations. Brenner's own preferred interpretation stresses the role of class relations and levels of class power. The breakthrough to the self-sustaining development of capitalism was made possible by the creation of a set of capitalist class relations, and this in turn depended upon the outcome of class struggles within feudalism. My sympathies lie much more with Wallerstein rather than Brenner. Brenner seems to view class relations as somehow self-levitating because he ignores the larger social, economic, and political context in which they emerge, exist, and get transformed. He has made a shibboleth of the Marxian notion of class struggle. I do, however, see two problems with Wallerstein's argument. First, there is what I regard as his undue emphasis on the role of a feudal crisis. As we shall see more clearly later, it is sensible to talk of the existence of a feudal crisis in Europe between approximately 1300 and 1450, but the extent to which this crisis was critical for the transition to capitalism is by no means clear. Doubt is cast on this possibility when we recognize that there was no feudal crisis in Japan, at least of the sort that occurred in Europe. Second, the capitalist world-economy seems to be virtually a creation ex nihilo. Wallerstein discounts the prior role, emphasized by Sweezy, of long-distance world trade as an explanation of the expansion of European commerce in the sixteenth century. This trade, Wallerstein says, was based on preciosities, and only a trade in bulk goods could have sustained the expansion of the Atlantic economy and the formation of something as large as a capitalist world-economy. Perhaps so, but the earlier world trade, which had become globally both extensive and intensive by the thirteenth century, could still have provided a context for the kind of expansion that Wallerstein is talking about. I will show the significance of this point in the presentation of my own interpretation of the rise of modern capitalism. Weberian Theories Numerous Weberian interpretations of the rise of modern capitalism have been presented. Of course, the most famous Weberian explanation is the one offered in 1904 by Weber himself in The Protestant ethic and the spirit of capitalism (1958[1904]). This argument is so well known that it needs no elaborate elucidation. Weber's basic point was that the rise of capitalism was a unique Western occurrence that benefitted greatly from the Protestant Reformation of the sixteenth century. The Protestant work ethic, particularly in its Calvinist form, stimulated an entrepreneurial attitude toward the world on the part of believers because it glorified hard work, devotion to one's "calling," frugality, avoidance of the ostentatious display of wealth, and the continuous reinvestment of profits in one's business. Success in the world of business through strict adherence to the work ethic did not gain one salvation, but nonetheless it served as a sign from God that one had been placed among the elect. Weber, of course, never argued that Protestantism was the sole cause of the rise of capitalism, only that it was one crucial stimulus among others. Robert Bellah (1957) has applied Weber's thesis to Japan in order to explain its unique economic development in the Asian world. He claims that the Japanese versions of Buddhism and Confucianism displayed a strong inner-worldly asceticism of the type Weber closely associated with Protestantism, and that this religious outlook had a powerful effect in conditioning an entrepreneurial attitude. Bellah's argument is a somewhat ironic twist on Weber inasmuch as the latter considered Eastern religions to hold to an other-worldly outlook that inhibited economic development. There are good reasons for being highly suspicious of Weber's argument and its extension to Japan. One of the early core powers of European capitalism was France, a largely Catholic country. Moreover, Jere Cohen (1980) has shown that Renaissance Italy, the heartland of Catholicism, gave rise to a vigorous merchant capitalism that contained most of the elements of modern rational capitalism pointed to by Weber. So Protestantism could not have been a necessary cause of capitalism. Moreover, Janet Abu-Lughod (1989) has suggested that it is difficult to draw much of a connection between religion and economics. She has pointed out that "Christianity, Buddhism, Confucianism, Islam, Zoroastrianism, and numerous other smaller sects often dismissed as 'pagan' all seem to have permitted and indeed facilitated commerce, production, exchange, risk taking, and the like. And among these, Christianity played a relatively insignificant role" (1989:354-55). Wallerstein is also skeptical of drawing too close a connection between religion and economics, but suggests that if there is one it is more likely to be one in which the causal arrows are pointing from economics to religion (1974:151-53): The central pan-European ideological controversy of the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries -- Reformation versus Counter-Reformation -- was inextricably intertwined with the creation both of the strong states and of the capitalist system. It is no accident that those parts of Europe which were re-agrarianized in the sixteenth century were also those parts of Europe in which the Counter-Reformation triumphed, while, for the most part, the industrializing countries remained Protestant. . . . This is no accident, not because, following Weber, we think Protestant theology is somehow more consonant with capitalism than Catholic theology. No doubt one can make a case for this argument. On the other hand, it seems to be true in general that any complex system of ideas can be manipulated to serve any particular social or political objective. Surely Catholic theology, too, has proved its capacity to be adaptable to its social milieu. There is little reason at the abstract level of ideas why one couldn't have written a plausible book entitled "The Catholic Ethic and the Rise of Capitalism." And Calvinist theology could be taken to have anticapitalist implications. The point I am making is a different one. By a series of intellectually accidental historical developments, Protestantism became identified to a large extent in the period of the Reformation with the forces favoring the expansion of commercial capitalism within the framework of strong national states, and with the countries in which these forces were dominant. Thus when such forces lost out in Poland, or Spain, or "Italy," or Hungary, Protestantism declined too and often rapidly. The factors which favored the expansion of export agriculture favored the reassertion of Catholicism. Weber's Protestant ethic argument was put forth relatively early in his career, and in later work he seems to have given the Protestant ethic a smaller role and moved in the direction of emphasizing the role of the nation-state (Collins, 1980). In his General economic history (1981[1927])he gives the nation-state a prominent role in the development of capitalism because it rationalized law, freed land for the capitalist market, eliminated barriers to markets, and standardized taxation and currencies. The nation-state also helped lay the foundations for a reliable system of banking, investment, property, and contracts. In general, it was the key to the development of the basic institutional structures of modern rational capitalism (Collins, 1980). This later theory, though, has its own difficulties, the most significant of which is that it begs the question as to what gave rise to the modern state. Weber argues that the early-modern nation-state arose because it was the most effective means available of pacifying a large territory (Collins, 1980). Such an argument, though, leaves us wondering why this kind of highly efficient state did not arise in other places and at other times. It would seem just as logical, if not more logical, to argue that the early-modern nation-state was the product of a system that was already becoming capitalist. The spirit of Weber has been kept alive in recent years by various scholars who have proposed neo-Weberian interpretations of the rise of modern capitalism. Daniel Chirot (1985, 1986) offers a multidimensional explanation that emphasizes three main factors: Europe's unique geographical conditions, the highly decentralized character of feudalism, and the increasing rationalization of law and religion in late feudalism. Similar interpretations have been offered by John A. Hall (1985) and Michael Mann (1986), who give particular emphasis to the role of religion. Both go beyond the Protestant ethic thesis to claim that it was Christianity in general, and not just Protestantism, that played a major role in the emergence of capitalism. Mann claims that Christianity was important because it led to the "normative pacification" of Europe, which allowed economic activity a freer rein, and because it contained an ideology or spirit of "rational restlessness." This restlessness, Mann claims, stimulated a strong orientation toward rational human action in the world, one part of which was religious action. These theories contain some insights, but in general their highly eclectic nature seems to complicate unnecessarily the search for a coherent and parsimonious understanding of the transition to capitalism. This is carrying multidimensionality too far. And serious doubts can be raised about some of the proposed factors, especially Christianity. As we have already noted, there is no necessary connection between religion and economics, and other religions besides Christianity have been seen to stimulate forms of rational economic growth. It is also difficult to accept Chirot's claim that capitalism was spurred along by some sort of spirit of rationality that was unique to Europe. This argument simply begs the question as to the origins of such a spirit. What is to prevent us from arguing that it was capitalism itself that spurred along a new spirit of rationality? World-System Theories Some of the most recent and provocative theories of the rise of capitalism employ a world-system approach similar to Wallerstein's (Schneider, 1977; Ekholm, 1981; Abu-Lughod, 1989; Frank, 1990, 1991). These theories are similar to Sweezy's in emphasizing the importance of world trade external to Europe, but they go considerably further. A rather extreme version of this kind of theory has been developed by Andre Gunder Frank (1990, 1991; Gills and Frank, 1991). Frank rejects the very notion that there was a qualitative shift from feudalism to capitalism in the sixteenth century, claiming that there has been a continuous process of capital accumulation within a single world system for some 5,000 years. He even argues against continued employment of terms like feudalism or capitalism to identify distinct modes of production in world history. What happened in Europe in the sixteenth century was simply the quantitative continuation of a very long-term historical process. Frank puts his case most forcefully (1991:24): Is it still possible or sensible to argue that there was a qualitatively different "transition" to and creation of a "modern-world-capitalist-system" around 1500? Or that this "transition" arose essentially out of the "transition from feudalism to capitalism" in Europe? No! and No again! It is time to relegate the latter debate to the parochial European history to which it rightly belongs. . . . Then is it still sensible to hold on for dear life to the supposedly scientific historical categories of . . . feudalism, capitalism, socialism -- or indeed any such "scientifically" defined "modes of production" or ideologically defined "systems" and "isms?" I believe NOT! So for Frank there really is nothing special about the sixteenth century, and thus nothing particularly worth explaining concerning that time. What is worth describing and explaining in great detail is the general process of world capital accumulation since 5000 BP. A more typical world-system approach to the rise of the modern world is that of Janet Abu-Lughod (1989). In her Before European hegemony, Abu-Lughod argues that Wallerstein's world-system argument starts too late and that there was a major world-system in effect as early as 1250. For Abu-Lughod this system was truly global and consisted of eight interlocking subsystems combined into three regional trade networks. The core of the system was Asia, especially China, and Europe was in a peripheral position. By 1350 the system had substantially distintegrated, with China withdrawing from participation and declining economically. To understand the rise of Wallerstein's capitalist world-economy in the sixteenth century we cannot focus our attention only on Europe, as has typically been the case. There was nothing special about Europe, and indeed concentration on it has reflected a kind of obsessive Eurocentrism. To understand the emergence of the modern world-system we must look at the global system that preceded it. Europe rose not because of any internal characteristics that made it special, but because of major geopolitical shifts within the world as a whole. The "rise of the West" was simultaneously the "fall of the East." Trade links between the eastern Mediterranean and the Orient were ruptured at the same time that trade relations between the Mediterranean and northwest Europe were deepening. These phenomena were not independent events but simply two different sides of the same world geopolitical coin. These theories are especially valuable in calling our attention to the importance of world trade networks prior to the sixteenth century. Frank's argument is particularly important in that it points to an important process of world commercialization going on for several millennia. Nonetheless, his argument goes much too far in identifying this process as one of capital accumulation essentially like the process of capital accumulation after 1500. It also goes too far in rejecting the notion of a qualitative shift in the sixteenth century, as well as the notion of distinct feudal and capitalist modes of production. While in some sense what happened after the sixteenth century was a quantitative extension of what had been going on for a very long time, in another sense there was a massive break with the past. There was a huge acceleration of the intensity of commercial activity and the shift to a mode of economic production in which capitalism became the dominant activity for the very first time. A truly "world-transforming" capitalism was coming into existence and it would set in motion processes never seen before in the world. There is indeed something vital about the sixteenth century that has to be explained. Abu-Lughod's analysis is much more measured, and her notion that there was a thirteenth-century world-system is of great importance. However, the real problem with her explanation of the sixteenth-century transition is that it is really no explanation at all. It is simply a new way of describing certain processes. If the relations between the eastern Mediterranean and the Orient frayed while those between the Mediterranean and northwest Europe deepened, then we need to know why such geopolitical shifts occurred, and Abu-Lughod never tells us. To identify the existence of a system within which different things go on at different times is only the beginning of the analysis. To stop things at that point is to make no contribution to a theory of economic development. Moreover, Abu-Lughod is quite wrong when she suggests that there was nothing distinctive about Europe. It was indeed different from the rest of the world, or at least most of it, since Japan was different too. It is not a matter of distinguishing the West from the East, but of distinguishing the particular combination of characteristics found in Europe and Japan on the one hand from the rest of the world on the other. No Eurocentrism in that! Demographic Theories A particularly prominent line of thought concerned with the breakdown of feudalism and the rise of capitalism in Europe has been devoted to demographic factors. A demographic explanation has been put forward by such scholars as Postan (1972), Wilkinson (1973), Le Roy Ladurie (1974), Harris (1977), and Perry Anderson (1974a). The argument is not always completely clear, but it seems to go something like this. From about the eleventh until the end of the thirteenth century, European feudalism was undergoing significant economic, ecological, and demographic expansion. As population grew new and more marginal lands were increasingly brought under cultivation until eventually Europe became "filled up." By about 1300 a serious state of population pressure had been reached, and this led to declining yields from the land and increasingly severe economic difficulties for both landlords and peasants. An economic, ecological, and demographic "crisis of feudalism" had developed. Nonetheless, in a sense the demographic aspect of this crisis turned out to be its own "cure." Increasing famine, malnourishment, and other disease -- especially the Black Death that first swept Europe in 1348-50 -- led to a sharp population decline that continued until around 1450. The demographic collapse generated a severe labor shortage, which caused a dramatic fall in the incomes of the landlord class and shifted the balance of class power in the direction of the peasantry. Economically, this made matters even worse for the feudal nobility. The nobles reacted to their worsened economic fortunes in a number of ways, but especially by expropriating the peasantry from the land and turning their estates over to the raising of sheep in order to sell their wool on the market. Landlords were moving more in the direction of becoming capitalist farmers. The increasing power of the peasantry allowed many peasants to flee into the towns where their labor was much in demand by the merchants, whose economic power was growing. However, many of the peasants who stayed on the land did not do so as traditional serfs (feudal social relations were essentially dead by 1450, at least in England). They were transformed into wage-earning farmhands who assisted their former landlords in running a capitalist agricultural enterprise. Some peasants even became transformed into capitalists -- yeoman farmers -- themselves. A critical question concerns why the demographic and economic crisis of feudalism got resolved in the particular way that it did. Why did the nobles react to their worsening economic situation by gradually transforming themselves, and many of their serfs, into capitalists? Why did they not respond to the growing power of the peasants by intensifying their repression and exploitation of this class? Michael Mann (1986:411) has offered a very plausible answer to these questions: If the feudal mode of production gave to the lords a monopoly of the means of physical violence, could they not respond with military force at times when relative product and factor values did not favor them? . . . This is not an idle question, for in many other times and places the response of lords to labor shortages has been to increase the dependency of their laborers. . . . The immediate answer to these questions is that the European lords did try repression and they nominally succeeded, but to no avail. Returning to the example of late-fourteenth-century labor shortages, there was a wave of landlord reaction. The lords attempted with violence and legislation to tie the peasantry to the manor and to keep down wages (just as late Roman landlords had). All across Europe the peasantry rose up in rebellion, and everywhere (except Switzerland) they were repressed. But their lords' victory proved hollow. The lords were compelled not by the peasants but by the transformed capitalist market and by opportunitiesfor profit, and threat of loss, within it. The weak state could not implement legislation without the local cooperation of the lords; it was the lords. And individual lords gave in, leased out their demesnes, and converted labor services into money rents. . . . The feudal mode of production was finally broken by the market. Marvin Harris (1977) has asked a similar question. Why, Harris wants to know, did the demographic decline of the fourteenth and fifteenth centuries not become part of a cyclical process of demographic and economic ups and downs? Why was there not a return to feudalism instead of a forward movement into capitalism? Here is Harris's answer (1977:173): In the crisis of European feudalism . . . the problem lay in the landlessness of the victims of enclosures and the raising of animals on lands that were needed to raise food crops. The first order of business of the manorial lords turned merchants and manufacturers could not be to drive out the sheep, restore the peasants to the land, and stop manufacturing woolens. The maximization of their own immediate political and economic welfare lay not in going backward but in going forward into larger and more uninhibited attempts to make money and accumulate capital by raising more sheep and manufacturing more woolens. In other words, a new economic path had already been set, and under the circumstances it was more rational to follow the logic of that path than to return to the earlier path. And Mann shows us one of the major reasons why: the changes within late feudalism were occurring within the context of an expanding world economic market -- a major new phase of world commercialization that developed after AD 1000 -- and this market drew feudal lords into it like a magnet. One difficulty with the demographic argument is that it is never completely clear whether the demographic crisis of feudalism was due to overpopulation, underpopulation, or both. Harris (1977) seems to be giving more emphasis to overpopulation, while Postan's (1972) analysis seems to focus more on the underpopulation that occurred after 1300 (cf. Brenner, 1976). Perry Anderson (1974a), on the other hand, seems to be talking about both. This question is especially critical in view of the different demographic patterns displayed by Japan throughout its feudal and early capitalist periods. Less work has been done on the demographic history of Japan than on Europe, but we now seem to have a fairly good picture of the former. Between the end of the twelfth and the end of the sixteenth century the population of Japan essentially doubled, rising from approximately 9.75 million in the period 1185-1333 to about 18 million in the period 1572-1591 (Taeuber, 1958). Major population growth continued throughout the first half of the Tokugawa era, with the population increasing to perhaps 30 million by 1725 (Jannetta, 1987). It used to be thought that population stagnated after this time throughout the remainder of the Tokugawa period (Hanley, 1972), but a new consensus has emerged that population continued to grow, albeit more slowly, from 1721 to 1868 (Hanley and Yamamura, 1972). Hanley and Yamamura (1972) estimate that during the period 1721-1872 the Japanese population grew at an average annual rate of 0.16%. Ann Bowman Jannetta (1987) claims that in 1600 Japan already had one of the world's most densely settled populations, and it would appear that this pressure intensified during the Tokugawa era. There is much evidence of infanticide during this time, and, as in Europe, considerable land reclamation was carried out. Hanley and Yamamura (1972) have summarized the evidence for a generally increasing rate of land reclamation from before the beginning of the Tokugawa period. Between 1551 and 1600 there were 28 shinden ("new fields") created. This number rose to 243 during the period 1601-1650 and to 434 during the period 1651-1700. During the eighteenth century the number of shinden dropped sharply, but then rose again to 788 during the period 1801-68. Land reclamation during the Tokugawa period approximately doubled the amount of total arable land. As in Europe, it is likely that a large portion of this land reclamation was due to population pressure, although we must acknowledge that a certain amount would have resulted from economic changes such as the growing commercialization of agriculture, or from the government's efforts at increasing its tax base (Hanley and Yamamura, 1972). The picture so far of Japanese demographic change is remarkably similar to the European picture before 1300. But at this point the picture changes drastically. There never was a period of significant decline in the Japanese population even remotely comparable to the European demographic collapse of 1300-1450 (Jannetta, 1987). The reason for this appears to be that Japan was never subjected to the two great killer diseases that beset medieval Europe, bubonic plague and typhus. The absence of these diseases no doubt stems from Japan's relative isolation from Europe. The black rat that carried the flea responsible for bubonic plague followed the overland caravan trade, and there was no caravan trade to Japan (Jannetta, 1987). The demographic regimes of Europe and Japan are different, then, in one crucial respect. And this means that a "crisis of underpopulation" that would have shifted the balance of class power away from the nobility in favor of the peasantry could not have been a causal factor in Japan's capitalist transition; that should make us doubt that the population crash of late medieval Europe played an important role in the European transition. However, it is still possible that overpopulation could have been a factor in Japan, and in the European capitalist transition as well. A NEW INTERPRETATION All of the theories we have discussed have significant weaknesses that preclude any of them offering a satisfactory explanation of the transition to capitalism. However, some of the insights of these theories can be drawn on in constructing a new interpretation. I proceed in a twofold manner. I shall begin by identifying several basic characteristics of Europe and Japan that I think operated as important preconditions facilitating their transition from a feudal to a capitalist economy. These preconditions, however, did not operate in a vacuum, but occurred only within the context of a particular historical juncture that marked the conclusion of a great historical trend. It was the interaction of these factors -- the five preconditions on the one hand and a major historical trend on the other -- that combined to produce the transition to modern capitalism when and where it occurred. Five Similarities between Europe and Japan Size. Japan and two of the three leading capitalist countries of early modern Europe -- England and the Netherlands -- were small, and as such contrast markedly with such Asian societies as China and India, which were large empires. This is very significant. Fernand Braudel (1984) has argued that the reason France lagged behind England and the Netherlands in her capitalist development was because she was "a victim of her size." France was thirteen times as large as the Netherlands and three or four times the size of England. Braudel points out that France's size created problems of transportation that England and the Netherlands did not have. Moreover, it is costly to maintain a large state because resources are drained away that could be used more directly for economic development. I think there is a parallel situation with large Asian societies like China and India. They were simply so big that obstacles were put in the way of economic development. In Asia Japan's much smaller size gave her a decided advantage. Geography. Japan and the leading capitalist countries of northwest Europe were located on large bodies of water that allowed them to give predominance to seaborne rather than overland trade. Samir Amin (1991) has noted that the societies containing the greatest amount of capitalism (what might be more accurately described as "protocapitalism") in the long agrarian era tended to be those in which seaborne trade was characteristic. And Braudel has pointed to the greater capitalist possibilities of seaborne trade specifically with respect to Japan (1982:582): If Japan seems rather different from the rest of eastern Asia, it is in the first place because it is surrounded by the sea, which made communications easier; the Seto no Uchi was a tiny Japanese Mediterranean and a very lively one. (Imagine an inland sea between Lyons and Paris.) I am not seeking to explain the entire development of Japan by the virtues of salt water -- but without them, the processes and sequences of events in this singular history would be almost impossible to imagine. It is noteworthy that the protocapitalism of China tended to be located along its southern coast, and that the great Indian Ocean trade linking the Mediterranean and East Asia between the rise of Islam in the seventh century and the beginnings of early modern Europe was indeed centered precisely there -- in the Indian Ocean (Chaudhuri, 1985). And where was the greatest economic development in late medieval Europe concentrated but in the city-states of Italy on the Mediterranean. The presence of seaborne trade by itself determines nothing, but it is a very important precondition for capitalist development. Climate. Europe and Japan both had temperate climates. This is important when we recognize that the bulk of the world colonized by Europe had tropical or subtropical climates. These regions were most suitable for the development of the kinds of peripheral economic activities -- production of raw materials for export using forced labor -- European states wanted to pursue in those zones. Alfred Crosby (1986) has argued that an important reason for the economic success of the British settler colonies -- the United States, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand -- was the fact that the settlers were inhabiting regions climatologically very similar to western Europe. Most of North America and Australia had climates poorly suited to peripheral economic activities (the southern United States is the exception that proves the rule: its warm climate was suitable for plantation agriculture, and it was peripheralized). Japan may have escaped peripheralization by Europe at least partly because of its climate or its distant northerly location. In any event, it wasn't climatologically suited for peripheral development. Demography: Both Europe and Japan underwent dramatic population growth during their feudal regimes. The buildup of population pressure may have contributed to the declining efficiency of feudalism and the shift toward capitalism. Political structure. Europe and Japan had the only true feudal regimes in world history (Anderson, 1974b). In fact, there is more similarity than that. The feudal systems of Europe and Japan arose at about the same time in world history and persisted for remarkably similar lengths of time. If we use the earliest and latest dates ordinarily given for feudalism in Europe and Japan, we arrive at the following results. The earliest date ordinarily given for the emergence of feudalism in Europe is 768, the beginning of the Carolingian state (Anderson, 1974a), and it is generally agreed that feudalism proper did not last beyond 1450. This gives a feudal period lasting 682 years. For Japan, the earliest date given is normally 1185, the beginning of the Kamakura Shogunate (Sansom, 1961; Reischauer, 1956; J.W. Hall, 1970). It is a bit difficult to date the end of Japanese feudalism, but everyone would agree that it was finished no later than 1868, the year of the Meiji Restoration. This gives a feudal period lasting 683 years, remarkably only one year more than the length of feudalism in Europe! Now I am not suggesting that we can really date the length of Japanese and European feudalism that precisely, but a striking similarity is clearly there. The significance of the feudal experiences of Europe and Japan lies in the substantial freedom they gave to their merchant classes to operate economically. As I shall show later, there is widespread agreement that large bureaucratic empires stifle mercantile activity because it is a threat to the tributary mode through which the state extracts surplus. Europe and Japan were strikingly different from the rest of the agrarian world. Their high levels of political decentralization meant that mercantile activities could not be controlled as they normally were in large bureaucratic states. Anderson (1974a,b) has called attention to the freedom of the towns in medieval Europe and Japan, their remarkably independent role within the total economies of these societies. Likewise, Norman Jacobs (1958) has stressed the remarkable freedom and independence of Japanese merchants in contrast to the tight control of merchants in China. Indeed, it was not just that the Japanese merchants enjoyed considerable economic freedom, but that the whole conception of the importance of mercantile activity was distinctive in Europe and Japan. As Jacobs (1958:118-19) has remarked by way of a comparison of China with Japan and Europe, in China, commerce -- and its successor, industry -- were viewed as necessary but morally inferior, and not primary to the operation of the division of labour. The occupational interests of commerce were subordinate to those of the literati and agriculture. . . . In Japan (as in western Europe) in contrast, the significance of commerce and of the merchant, even under feudalism, derived from an appreciation of the role of the merchant and his money in the struggle for control of independent political or economic power. Consequently the merchant, and his successor, the capitalist-industrialist, received in return a respected and sought-after position in the division of labour. In my view, the freedom given to merchants was the most important of the five preconditions that helped push Europe and Japan forward as the first states to undergo a capitalist revolution. Differences Between Europe and Japan There were of course differences between Europe and Japan, the two most important of which seem to be the following: 1. There was no demographic collapse in late medieval Japan as there was in late medieval Europe. The Japanese population remained large and dense and continued to grow throughout the Tokugawa period. 2. One does not really get a sense of a crisis of feudalism in Japan that corresponded to the European crisis. Perry Anderson (1974b) suggests that there was a feudal crisis in early-nineteenth-century Japan, but what he is describing looks more like a crisis of capitalism, probably induced by the relative isolation of the country from foreign markets. In any event, even if there was a Japanese crisis, it could not have been of the same type as the European crisis. These differences between Europe and Japan provide some suggestions about what won't work in explaining the capitalist transition. The absence of an underpopulation problem in Japan raises doubts about the importance of such a factor in Europe. There was a labor shortage in Japan in Tokugawa times, but it was not the result of insufficient population. Rather, it was an urban rather than a rural problem and stemmed from the rapid commercialization and urbanization of the country. Social Change in Agrarian States In order to introduce the second major part of my theory, a long digression is necessary. This digression concerns the most important forms of social change that occurred during the some 4500 years between the rise of the first agrarian states and civilizations and the sixteenth-century capitalist takeoff. Once this digression has been completed, the second half of the theory can be connected with the first half and the entire theory made plain. Agrarian states: growth versus evolution. The economic historian E.L. Jones (1988; Goudsblom, Jones, and Mennell, 1989) has drawn a distinction between extensive growth and intensive growth in world history. By extensive growth Jones means an increase in economic productivity sufficient merely to provide for an expanding population at roughly the same standard of living. Intensive growth, on the other hand, involves a rise in economic productivity that exceeds the rise in population so that the economic output per capita rises. Using this distinction, Jones notes that extensive growth has been overwhelmingly the norm throughout world history; there have been relatively few instances of intensive growth. Jones nominates early modern Europe, Tokugawa Japan, and Sung China as history's leading candidates for intensive growth. Useful though Jones's distinction is, I should like to introduce a similar though importantly different one between social growth and social evolution. Social growth occurs when there is a quantitative change in one or more dimensions within a system of social organization. Increases in, say, the size of a population, military might, technological efficiency, or political power may be regarded as social growth so long as they do not lead a society into a structurally new mode of organization. Jones's extensive growth therefore belongs within my category of social growth. However, intensive growth may also be social growth rather than social evolution if it is not sufficient to produce a qualitative shift to a structurally novel mode of life. The case of Sung China was just that: a powerful economic thrust that petered out before it could generate a new mode of social organization. This makes it obvious, then, that by social evolution I mean a qualitative transformation, the development of something new rather than simply something greater. The crucial question obviously becomes, Was there much social evolution during the so-called agrarian era? The answer is no, there was not. There was considerable social growth in the spheres of political power, military force, economics, and technology, a lot more in fact than is ordinarily supposed. But throughout some 4500 years there was no leap forward to a structurally new form of social organization. This theme of the absence of any real "evolutionary potential" to agrarian states has been enunciated by numerous scholars, indeed, has become the standard wisdom. There is also a standard wisdom regarding how to explain this "evolutionary inertia," and that is to argue that it resulted from the peculiar system of social stratification and state power so characteristic of these societies. This point of view was adopted by Max Weber (1981[1927], 1976[1896/1909]) early in this century, and has been promoted by such recent social scientists as Immanuel Wallerstein (1974), John A. Hall (1985), Gerhard Lenski (1970), Dietrich Rueschemeyer (1986), John Kautsky (1982), and E.L. Jones (1988). The argument is essentially that the two basic social classes, the aristocracy and the peasantry, had no incentive to alter the underlying mode of economic production. The aristocracy had no incentive for change because they benefitted enormously from the prevailing tributary arrangements. Indeed, commercial activity or technological advancement could be positively threatening to their means of extracting wealth from the subject population. They therefore kept a close watch on the activities of specialists in production-for-exchange, the merchants, and generally acted so as to keep their activities within certain bounds. On the peasants' side, they too had little incentive for change because whatever improvements they may have introduced into the productive process would have gone for the benefit of their lords rather than for themselves. Many scholars have focused mainly on technological advancement in general when addresssing this issue, but others have spoken specifically of capitalist development. In The Agrarian Sociology of Ancient Civilizations, Weber waxed eloquent on how agrarian bureaucratic states stifled capitalism (1976[1896/1909]:62-63): The public finance of the ancient states could . . . retard private capitalism in various ways. Above all the general political basis of ancient states typically reinforced the great instability of capital structure and formation inherent in the ancient economies. There were many pressures working in the same direction . . . . Furthermore there was the danger of confiscations, which occurred at every political upset and change of parties in ancient communities . . . . However, much more important than these catastrophes which affected only particular interests or communities, was the general limitation imposed by public administrations on the profits of private capital, and thereby on capital formation. . . . The ancient monarch and members of his court were always great agrarian lords. I see no reason to challenge this conventional view of agrarian empires, but I would add to it one important point. Assuming that the movement out of the stage of agrarian society was going to be a movement into a specifically capitalist system of social and economic life -- and historically, of course, this is the way things have worked out -- it needs to be stressed that the emergence of capitalism could not be some sort of sudden leap forward to be achieved in a few dozen or even a few hundred years. It was an economic transformation that required a long period of time because of what might be called the "threshold effect." Because of capitalism's requirement for extensive markets (both foreign and domenstic), and because of the general hostility of agrarian elites to it, it could only emerge slowly, and as such would require a lengthy period of incubation before it could reach a kind of "critical mass" essential to a tipping of economic power in its favor. In retrospect we know that the time period actually required was approximately 4500 years from the beginning of the first agrarian states. What remains to be shown here is the process whereby agrarian societies gradually built up the critical mass needed for eventually crossing the threshold into a genuinely (i.e., world transforming) capitalist system. Forms of social growth in agrarian societies. I would like to suggest that there have been three major forms of social growth during the era dominated by agrarian states: political growth, which involves both an increase in the size of political units and in the concentration of power within these units; technological growth, with respect to both economic subsistence and military force; and economic growth, which has primarily been manifested in an increase in the level of world commercialization. I regard this third form of growth as the most important and, because of space limitations, shall concentrate on it. Economic growth during the agrarian era involved an expansion in the scale and importance of economic exchange, which can be assessed in terms of growth in the size and density of trade networks. John Kautsky (1982) has drawn a distinction between "traditional" and "commercialized" aristocratic empires, noting that there has been a general trend for the former to give way to the latter. He suggests that, given enough time, virtually all of history's traditional aristocratic empires have tended to become commercialized, describing this process as an almost inexorable one. Along similar lines, Andre Gunder Frank (1990, 1991; Gills and Frank, 1991) argues for a long-term process of capital accumulation, based mainly on trade, that has occurred at an increasingly global level since the origin of the first Mesopotamian states 5,000 years ago. Frank sees this process as the central developmental process of world history, and one that is needed in order to explain developments in the noneconomic spheres of agrarian societies. It is possible to mark off three major stages in this process of expanding world commercialization (McNeill, 1982; Curtin, 1984). The first stage begins around 4000 BP and ends around 2200 BP. During this phase trade was largely local or, at best, regional in scope. By 2200 BP there emerged the first truly long-distance trade with the establishment of a trade axis that ran all the way from China to the Mediterranean. After about AD 1000 there was another big leap forward in which trade networks expanded and deepened, especially in the period 1250-1350. It is interesting to note that the emergence of a worldwide trade axis after 2200 BP corresponds closely to a sudden surge in the size of agrarian empires (Taagepera, 1978). The two are undoubtedly causally related, for, as E.L. Jones (1988) has argued, truly long-distance trade networks only became possible with the rise of very large empires. Only empires of that size had developed the technology of communication and transportation needed to facilitate worldwide trade. Philip Curtin (1984) has described some of the basic characteristics of the worldwide trade network that was in effect between 2200 BP and AD 1000 (cf. Chaudhuri, 1985). As he notes, during this period trade became regularized between the Red Sea/Persian Gulf region and India, between India and Southeast Asia, and between Southeast Asia and both China and Japan. In the middle Han period, Chinese merchants traveled to the west through central Asia and established an overland trade route between East Asia and Europe. Chinese trade with India had become extensive by the first century AD, and Chinese goods were being sold widely in the Roman empire. During Roman times trade between India and the Mediterranean was carried on through three different routes: an overland route through Parthia, the Persian Gulf combined with an overland route, and the Red Sea combined with an overland route to Egypt or some part of the Fertile Crescent region. Maritime trade flourished in the South China Sea and the Bay of Bengal, with Canton being an important port for trade to the south. William McNeill (1982) has described what he regards as a new and major burst of world commercialization beginning around AD 1000, and centering heavily on China. It was during this time that China had by far its greatest burst of economic activity prior to modern times, one that lags behind only late medieval Europe and Tokugawa Japan in scale and scope. Mark Elvin (1973) has referred to this as an "economic revolution," most of which occurred during the period of the Sung dynasty (AD 960-1275). Elvin sees the Sung economic revolution as involving agriculture, water transport, money and credit, industry, and trade (both domestic and foreign). Elvin argues that improvements in agriculture gave China by the thirteenth century the most sophisticated agricultural system in the world, and one that provided a foundation for major thrusts forward in commercial activity. Commercial activity was also greatly aided by improvements in water transport. These improvements involved both the construction of better sailing vessels on the one hand and the building of canals and removal of natural obstacles to navigation in streams and rivers on the other. Industry flourished, especially the production of steel and iron. The economy became much more monetized. There was a much greater volume of money in circulation, and the money economy even penetrated into peasant villages. Foreign trade, especially with Southeast Asia and Japan, flourished. Markets proliferated and became hierarchically organized. At this time China was the world's most economically advanced society, and many observers have suggested that it was on the brink of the world's first industrial revolution. However, beginning sometime in the fourteenth century China began to decline and stagnate economically and gradually to withdraw from foreign trade. It became increasingly isolated and inward looking, a process that had become fairly complete by the middle of the fifteenth century. The reasons for this economic downturn are still very imperfectly understood today. McNeill sees the enormous economic growth in Sung China as part of a larger picture of world commercialization. As he says, "China's rapid evolution towards market-regulated behavior in the centuries on either side of the year 1000 tipped a critical balance in world history" (1982:25). And he elaborates (1982:50-54): Though the capitalist spirit was . . . kept firmly under control, the rise of a massive market economy in China during the eleventh century may have sufficed to change the world balance between command and market behavior in a critically significant way. . . . Moreover, the growth of the Chinese economy and society was felt beyond China's borders; and as Chinese technical secrets spread abroad, new possibilities opened in other parts of the Old World, most conspicuously in western Europe. . . . What seems certain is that the scale of trade through the southern seas grew persistently and systematically from 1000 onwards, despite innumerable temporary setbacks and local disasters. Behavior attuned to the maintenance of such trade became more and more firmly embedded in everyday routines of human life. . . . What was new in the eleventh century, therefore, was not the principle of market articulation of human effort across long distances, but the scale on which this kind of behavior began to affect human lives. New wealth arising among a hundred million Chinese began to flow out across the seas (and significantly along caravan routes as well) and added new vigor and scope to market-related activity. Scores, hundreds, and perhaps thousands of vessels began to sail from port to port within the Sea of Japan and the South China Sea, the Indonesian Archipelago and the Indian Ocean. . . . As is well known, a similar upsurge of commercial activity took place in the eleventh century in the Mediterranean, where the principal carriers were Italian merchants sailing from Venice, Genoa, and other ports. They in turn brought most of peninsular Europe into a more and more closely articulated trade net in the course of the next three hundred years. It was a notable achievement, but only a small part of the larger phenomenon, which, I believe, raised market-regulated behavior to a scale and significance for civilized peoples that had never been attained before. . . . It was precisely in the eleventh century, when China's conversion to cash exchanges went into high gear, that European seamen and traders made the Mediterranean a miniature replica of what was probably happening simultaneously in the southern oceans. . . . These separate sea networks were then combined into one single interacting whole after 1291. Janet Abu-Lughod (1989) has picked up the story where McNeill left it. She describes in great detail for the period 1250-1350 the structure and operation of a vast worldwide trade network from western Europe to East Asia. This huge "world system" contained eight overlapping subsystems that can be categorized into three larger circuits centering on western Europe, the Middle East, and the Far East. Abu-Lughod refuses to be drawn into a discussion of whether this system was "capitalistic" or not, but she does claim that it provided the basis for the development of modern capitalism after about 1500. Furthermore, she claims that this world trade network (1989:353) was substantially more complex in organization, greater in volume, and more sophisticated in execution, than anything the world had previously known. . . . Sophistication was evident in the technology of shipping and navigation, the social organization of production and marketing, and the institutional arrangements for conducting business, such as partnerships, mechanisms for pooling capital, and techniques for monetization and exchange. As already indicated, it is my view that expanding world commercialization was the most important form of social growth that occurred during the approximately four and a half millennia of the agrarian epoch, at least in terms of its ultimate world-transforming significance. We are now in a position to connect this great historical trend with the five preconditions shared by Europe and Japan in order to understand the precise combination of circumstances that triggered the great economic takeoff that we acknowledge as the birth of the modern capitalist world. Explaining the Capitalist Takeoff My general explanation of the transition to capitalism is this: Modern capitalism resulted from the interaction between the five preconditions discussed earlier -- small size, location on a large body of water, temperate climate, population growth, and feudal political relations permitting mercantile freedom and independence -- and the fact that the level of world commercialization had finally built up in the centuries after AD 1000 to a critical density sufficient to trigger a massive capitalist takeoff. A threshold of commercialization as the result of expanding urban networks and extensive and intensive trade density had been achieved, and this led to an explosive capitalist takeoff in those two regions of the world, western Europe and Japan, that were most hospitable to capitalist activity. The increasing level of world commercialization over the very long run is the truly critical factor in all this, for as Fernand Braudel (1984:96) has said, "There could be no world economy until there was a dense enough urban network with trade of sufficient volume and regularity to breathe life into a central or core zone." Braudel is speaking of Europe, but the same argument applies to Japan. Although Japan did not trade with Europe in the centuries before Tokugawa, and although it was isolated from the West during most of the Tokugawa epoch, it did carry on a very significant trade with East Asia during this entire period, and it has been described by several economic historians as one of the great maritime powers of East Asia in the thirteenth, fourteenth, and fifteenth centuries (J.W. Hall, 1970; Braudel, 1982). The seeds of capitalism had clearly been sown by Ashikaga times (i.e., after 1338) (Jacobs, 1958; Braudel, 1982). Of the preconditions that interacted with this expanding level of world commercialization the most important was the freedom given to mercantile activity by feudal political relations. Although the other conditions were certainly important in stimulating commercial activity, European and Japanese merchants could not have gotten as far as they did at the time that they did without a favorable political climate. It is of the greatest importance to note that my theory holds that capitalism would eventually have developed anyway given enough time for the further buildup of world commercialization. Europe and Japan were the first to have genuine capitalist takeoffs because they had the most suitable preconditions, and because these conditions allowed them to contribute greatly to the whole process of expanding world commercialization, but even if there never had been any feudal societies in the world an explosive capitalist spurt would eventually have occurred. It may have taken a good deal more time -- say another millennium or two -- for capitalism to emerge because of the lack of highly favorable preconditions, but the expanding level of world commercialization would eventually have gotten its way. It was a force that could be slowed down, but it could not be stopped. Eventually the level of world commercialization would have become such that the tipover into world-transforming capitalism would have occurred even under generally unfavorable preconditions. Capitalism was a force that could not be denied. Its emergence was inevitable at some point or other. The rise of capitalism was a matter of the growing economic power of the mercantile classes, a matter of these classes insinuating themselves into the tissues of agrarian-coercive societies with their tributary modes of production and finding the best home they could. Since merchants were disdained (indeed, often despised) by agrarian ruling classes, their advancement could only be difficult and slow. Nonetheless, agrarian elites could not dispense with merchants because they provided goods and services that agrarian elites greatly desired. They had to be tolerated, if not encouraged. And merchants took whatever they could get. Some anthropologists have said, correctly in my opinion, that in egalitarian band and tribal societies "inequality is always struggling to get out" (cf. Cashdan, 1980). By analogy, I would say that in agrarian-coercive societies "capitalism is always struggling to get out." Merchants could be hemmed in here and there, could have their wealth expropriated by this and that bureaucratic elite, but they could not be denied forever. Gradually their economic power grew, until, some 4500 years after the origins of the first states and quite probably the first genuine merchants, they were able to conquer and subdue the very kind of society that gave them birth. It wasn't easy, and it took a long time, but eventually it happened. It happened first in western Europe and Japan, but if it had not happened there it would have happened somewhere else at a later time. Again, the capitalist takeoff was inevitable. One aspect of my argument that I have to confess is still a little cloudy is the role of demographic growth. I doubt that this was a major factor in the capitalist transition, but it may have played some role. Whether it did, and just how much it did, is not completely clear. Population pressure was surely a problem in China and India at the time in history that we are considering, but since we see no evidence of a capitalist takeoff there it is difficult to give population pressure an important role. But in a larger sense it does not really matter all that much, for in the long run, as I have said, even the other preconditions were not necessary to the end result. I regard this interpretation as a highly parsimonious one that accomplishes the following things: 1. It explains why capitalism first emerged when and where it did. 2. It explains why it took a full 4500 years for capitalism to emerge. This is an especially important accomplishment because the question as to why it took so long for capitalism to emerge after the rise of the first agrarian states has been a central one. 3. It explains why there was such remarkably similar timing in the emergence of capitalism in Europe and Japan. The buildup in world commercialization, especially in the centuries after AD 1000, was the critical context for capitalism. Some might think it a "coincidence" or a mere "historical accident" that the transition to capitalism was made in two distant parts of the world at, on a world-historical time scale, almost the same moment. But for any nomothetically-oriented scholar the timing is too close to be explained in that way. 4. It dispenses with the hoary debate concerning whether the rise of capitalism in Japan was the result of endogenous or exogenous factors. Clearly it was both. The one big external factor was the intensified level of world commercialization, whereas the internal factors were the five basic preconditions. Perry Anderson (1974b) claims that Japan made its capitalist transition only as a result of the forced reopening of the country in the middle of the nineteenth century, an all-too-common view even today. Frances Moulder (1977) also claims that Japan never could have made the transition under its own impetus. But both scholars seriously underappreciate Japan's internal strengths and the degree to which it had already become essentially capitalist by the time of Commodore Perry's arrival in 1853. Norman Jacobs (1958) and Fernand Braudel (1982) show that there was a substantial endogenous evolution toward capitalism in Japan. As Braudel puts it (1982:591-93): An early form of Japanese capitalism, clearly self-generated and native to the country, did nevertheless appear of its own accord. . . . [E]verything conspired to produce a kind of early capitalism which was the product neither of imitation of foreigners, nor of initiatives by any religious community . . . . In short, this capitalism emerged in the first instance from the development of a market economy which was long-standing, lively, and expanding: markets, fairs, sea-voyages, and exchange (if only the redistribution of fish to inland towns) and finally long-distance trade which was also an early development, particularly with China, and which yielded fantastic rewards (1100 per cent on the first voyages of the fifteenth century). What would have happened in Japan if it had not been forcibly reopened by the West? Moulder's (1977) answer is that it would have stagnated under archaic feudal relations. My answer, though, is that by the mid-nineteenth century Japan was extremely close to opening itself up under its own volition. In the nineteenth century the Japanese had enormous interest in Western technology, and Japan was ripe for the shift to industrial capitalism. If this shift had not begun in the late nineteenth century, as we know it actually did, then it would not have taken much longer. Japan would have opened itself up voluntarily, inserted itself into the world capitalist market, and begun its own independent process of industrialization. Consider what happened in China in the fourteenth and fifteenth centuries. It withdrew from world trade and declined economically, short circuiting the advance toward capitalism that some scholars think was soon in store for it. Contrast this with what happened in Japan when it embarked on its isolationist path in the seventeenth century. During the more than two centuries of its isolation it underwent enormous expansion, surely an indication of the strength of the endogenous forces pushing it toward capitalism. I know that some readers may be wary of my theory because the notion of capitalism's slow but inevitable emergence will conjure up for them an underlying image of "economic man" who has a tendency to "truck, barter, and exchange." The theory will be branded as yet another type of "neo-Smithian" argument. But this would be a serious misreading of my intent. I do not hold to a view of human nature that says that humans have some sort of inborn tendency to exchange things for profit. Humans are not inherently "capitalistic" in their outlook on the world. Indeed, if I thought such a thing shouldn't I expect capitalism to have appeared much earlier than it did, and shouldn't there have been much less resistance to it? My argument is that, when after a certain historical point mercantile activity became feasible (about 5000 BP), at least some people wanted to pursue it and at least some other people wanted it maintained because they could benefit from it. Once in existence, mercantile activity tended to expand of its own accord, and thus the economic power of the merchant classes slowly, but surely, increased. And at some point it reached a level beyond which it could no longer be stopped. I take no particular pleasure in holding this view, which should by no means be interpreted as tantamount to some sort of "procapitalist" ideological position. I am just as aware as my Marxist friends of the unpleasant and objectionable features of the capitalist mode of production. To explain the rise of capitalism is one thing, to evaluate its moral and political significance quite another. NOTES 1. Debate has raged for decades over the question of the nature of feudalism and its degree of generality in world history (Bloch, 1961; Coulborn, 1956; P. Anderson, 1974b; Critchley, 1978). I accept the argument made by Perry Anderson (1974b) that only western Europe and Japan have had genuine feudal systems. Anderson sees as the critical features of feudalism vassalage, the fief, and the fragmentation of political authority, or what he calls the "parcellization of sovereignty." He stresses that in both European and Japanese feudalism there was created a "dynamic opposition" of town and country, and that as a result medieval towns in Europe and Japan maintained a striking economic autonomy. Other areas of the world at other times may have had politico-economic systems that were "feudalistic" (cf. Coulborn, 1956), but only medieval Europe and Japan were genuinely feudal in Anderson's sense. 2. By capitalism I mean essentially what Wallerstein means, and that is an economic system in which goods are produced for sale on the market with an eye to the earning of the maximum profit and the accumulation of profit (capital) over time. I do not believe it is necessary to stipulate that the term capitalism must only be applied to a "mode of production," as strict Marxists require. 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